Fourth competition

Fourth competition, started in Jan 1 2018, ended in May 31 2018.

The M-Competitions have attracted great interest in both the academic literature and among practitioners, providing objective evidence of the most appropriate way of forecasting various variables of interest. The fourth competition, M4, was announced in November 2017. The competition started in Jan 1 2018 and ended in May 31 2018. Initial results were published in the [International Journal of Forecasting] on June 21, 2018. The paper can be downloaded at the [ScienceDirect website].

The M4 extended and replicated the results of the previous three competitions, using an extended and diverse set of time series to identify the most accurate forecasting method(s) for different types of predictions. It aimed to get answers on how to improve forecasting accuracy and identify the most appropriate methods for each case. To get precise and compelling answers, the M4 Competition utilized 100,000 real-life series, and incorporates all major forecasting methods, including those based on Artificial Intelligence (Machine Learning, ML), as well as traditional statistical ones.

In his blog, Rob J. Hyndman said about M4: “The “M” competitions organized by Spyros Makridakis have had an enormous influence on the field of forecasting. They focused attention on what models produced good forecasts, rather than on the mathematical properties of those models. For that, Spyros deserves congratulations for changing the landscape of forecasting research through this series of competitions.”